Risk, Reward, Repeat: Building a Risk-Intelligent Mindset for Expedition Leaders

For adventurers and all kinds of wild leaders, every decision can be a tightrope walk between risk and reward. Whether you're navigating unpredictable terrain, managing a team in remote locations, or responding to sudden environmental shifts, the stakes are high. This is where having a “risk-intelligent” mindset becomes invaluable.

Risk intelligence isn’t about being fearless; it’s about recognizing potential dangers, assessing them with clarity, and knowing when to press forward or hold back. In this post, we’ll explore what it takes to cultivate risk intelligence, from building situational awareness to honing rapid decision-making skills. Ready to turn instinct into expertise? Let’s dive in.

Understanding Risk Intelligence: It’s More Than Just Awareness

Risk intelligence is the ability to identify, assess, and respond to potential threats in a way that maximizes safety while allowing for calculated risks. This mindset combines an acute sense of situational awareness with analytical skills, experience, and intuition.

At its core, risk intelligence involves:

• Perception: Recognizing potential threats and opportunities as they arise.

• Interpretation: Understanding the implications of these factors.

• Response: Making informed decisions based on this understanding, balancing potential rewards against risks.

For expedition leaders, this skill set means having both the strategic foresight and the tactical adaptability to make sound decisions in high-pressure situations.

Step 1: Cultivate Situational Awareness Like a Pro

Situational awareness is the bedrock of risk intelligence. It means being fully aware of your surroundings, noticing subtle changes, and anticipating how they could affect your course of action.

Techniques to Build Situational Awareness

1. Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA Loop) - This four-step model is used by high-stakes decision-makers to maintain sharp focus and quickly assess their environment.

   • Observe: Take in all relevant information.

   • Orient: Contextualize this information based on your goals and experience.

   • Decide: Choose the best course of action.

   • Act: Implement your decision swiftly.

2. Environmental Scanning - Make it a habit to scan the horizon and environment at regular intervals, even when it feels safe. This simple habit can reveal early signs of weather changes, terrain shifts, or potential hazards.

3. Self-Check Questions - Every so often, ask yourself: “What’s changing here?” “What’s the worst that could happen?” “What’s my next best move?” This keeps your brain actively engaged in monitoring risks.

Step 2: Master Rapid Risk Assessment Techniques

Risk assessment doesn’t have to be a lengthy process. Leaders in high-stakes environments need to make quick decisions, sometimes within seconds. Training your brain to assess risk quickly and accurately is key.

Rapid Risk Assessment Techniques

• Traffic Light System: Use a mental “traffic light” system to evaluate situations:

  • Green: Low risk, proceed with caution.

  • Yellow: Moderate risk, proceed with heightened awareness.

  • Red: High risk, stop and reassess.

• R.E.A.D. Model (Recognize, Evaluate, Act, Decide): Use this model to quickly parse risk levels.

  • Recognize the situation.

  • Evaluate the immediate risks.

  • Act accordingly, whether that means retreating or proceeding.

  • Decide if the course of action aligns with your objectives and safety criteria.

• 2-Minute Drill: Give yourself exactly two minutes to outline possible risks and rewards. This quick mental exercise can reveal intuitive insights and force clarity under pressure.

Step 3: Embrace Mental Frameworks for Decision-Making

In high-stakes situations, reliable mental frameworks can help simplify complex choices. For adventurers, these frameworks should be agile, grounded in experience, and informed by an understanding of risk tolerance.

Key Decision-Making Frameworks

• The 70% Rule: When you have about 70% of the information you need, make a decision. Waiting for absolute certainty often leads to missed opportunities or unnecessary risk exposure.

• Probability vs. Impact: For every potential risk, consider both its likelihood and its impact. High-likelihood, low-impact risks may be acceptable, while low-likelihood, high-impact risks often require mitigation.

• SWOT Snapshot: A quick analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats can be invaluable in uncertain environments. Think through these elements swiftly to clarify your options.

Step 4: Train Your Instincts—Experience is the Best Teacher

Experience is a crucial component of risk intelligence. It hones your instincts and allows you to make split-second decisions grounded in a deep understanding of similar past situations.

Ways to Train Your Instincts

1. Simulate High-Risk Scenarios: Practice responding to simulated emergencies or unpredictable conditions. These scenarios help develop your intuitive decision-making skills.

2. Debrief After Every Expedition: Take time to reflect on past experiences. What went well? What could have been improved? How did you handle unforeseen risks?

3. Challenge the Status Quo: Put yourself in situations that test your risk tolerance and adaptability. Whether it’s exploring unfamiliar terrain or navigating new weather patterns, exposure to new situations trains your mind to make quick, grounded decisions.

Step 5: Trust, but Verify—Balancing Instinct with Data

While intuition is a valuable tool, data and information are equally important. Balancing these two elements is key to an effective risk-intelligent mindset.

Techniques for Balancing Instinct and Data

• Fact-Check Under Pressure: When in doubt, verify your assumptions. Check compass bearings, recalibrate your route, and confirm your readings. Small steps like these can prevent major errors.

• Team Consultations: If you’re with a team, seek input from others. A fresh set of eyes can reveal overlooked risks or alternative approaches.

• Use Tools Strategically: From GPS to weather apps, modern technology can be a valuable ally. Just remember that these tools should supplement—not replace—your decision-making.

1. Step 6: Take Calculated Risks and Learn from the Outcomes

   Ultimately, risk intelligence is about striking a balance between safety and progress. Calculated risks are part of every expedition, and every risk you take provides valuable insights for the future.

   Reflection Techniques for Calculated Risk-Taking

   1. Risk vs. Reward Reflection: After each decision, evaluate if the reward was worth the risk. Reflect on whether you’d take a similar risk in future situations.

2. Document Your Lessons: Keep a risk journal. Document what worked, what didn’t, and how you felt about the outcomes. Over time, you’ll gain a personalized playbook of risk intelligence.

3. Embrace Failures as Learning: Some risks won’t pay off, but that’s part of the process. Accept mistakes as learning experiences that sharpen your decision-making skills for the future.

The Risk-Intelligent Mindset: Your Most Valuable Tool

Building a risk-intelligent mindset means training your brain to make calculated, informed, and confident decisions in unpredictable conditions. It’s about balancing instinct with data, remaining vigilant to your surroundings, and knowing when to push forward and when to hold back.

For wild leaders, this mindset is more than just a skill—it’s the difference between hesitation and action, between safe retreats and successful summits. By honing your risk intelligence, you become a leader others trust, a navigator of uncertainty, and, above all, an adventurer ready for any challenge the wilderness throws your way.

Cited Evidence & Research

1. Endsley, M. R. (1995). "Toward a Theory of Situation Awareness in Dynamic Systems."
   Human Factors, 37(1), 32–64.

   • This foundational study by Dr. Mica Endsley explores the concept of situational awareness, especially in dynamic and high-stakes environments, detailing how awareness impacts decision-making.

2. Klein, G. (1997). "The Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) Model: Looking Back, Looking Forward."
   Naturalistic Decision Making, 285–292.

   • Klein’s research introduces the RPD model, which explains how people make quick, effective decisions by drawing on experience—a core aspect of risk intelligence.

3. Flin, R., Salas, E., Strub, M., & Martin, L. (Eds.). (1997). "Decision Making Under Stress: Emerging Themes and Applications."
   Stress and Decision-Making.

   • This book provides a compilation of studies on decision-making under stress, with practical insights into how training can improve decision quality in high-risk scenarios.

4. Wallenius, C., & Larsson, G. (2001). "The Influence of Intelligence and Adaptability on the Development of Psychological Preparedness."
   Military Psychology, 13(1), 1-15.

   • This study underscores how adaptability and mental preparedness play key roles in building resilience in unpredictable environments.

Documentaries & Visual Resources

1. "Free Solo" (2018)
   Directed by Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin.

   • This documentary follows Alex Honnold’s journey to climb El Capitan without ropes, offering a gripping look at how mental preparation, risk assessment, and decision-making play out in high-stakes climbing.

2. "Touching the Void" (2003)
   Directed by Kevin Macdonald.

   • Based on a true story, this documentary explores survival and decision-making under extreme circumstances in the Andes. It’s a powerful testament to risk intelligence and the mental frameworks used when survival is on the line.

3. "The Dawn Wall" (2017)
   Directed by Josh Lowell and Peter Mortimer.

   • This documentary features climbers Tommy Caldwell and Kevin Jorgeson, who navigate intense physical and psychological challenges. It illustrates the importance of assessing risks and adjusting to unexpected circumstances.

4. "The Alpinist" (2021)
   Directed by Peter Mortimer and Nick Rosen.

   • Following climber Marc-André Leclerc, this documentary captures the mental and physical demands of alpine climbing, where risk management is crucial to survival.

Recommended Books

1. "Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why" by Laurence Gonzales

   • Gonzales explores the psychology behind survival, covering how some people manage fear, assess risks, and make life-saving decisions under pressure. The book is filled with case studies and scientific insights relevant to adventurers.

2. "The Art of Risk: The New Science of Courage, Caution, & Chance" by Kayt Sukel

   • Sukel’s book breaks down the science of risk-taking and how cognitive processes impact our perception of risk and reward. It’s particularly useful for understanding how people make calculated risks and avoid unnecessary ones.

3. "The Fear Project: What Our Most Primal Emotion Taught Me About Survival, Success, Surfing... and Love" by Jaimal Yogis

   • Yogis’ personal journey into understanding fear combines neuroscience, personal anecdotes, and real-world examples from high-stakes environments. It’s an engaging resource for those interested in overcoming fear and understanding risk.

4. "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman

   • Although not specific to wilderness environments, this book provides a deep dive into how humans make decisions under different types of cognitive pressure. Kahneman’s insights into System 1 and System 2 thinking can be applied to decision-making in adventure scenarios.

5. "On the Edge: Leadership Lessons from Mount Everest and Other Extreme Environments" by Alison Levine

   • Written by a seasoned climber and leader, this book combines personal experiences with insights into decision-making, risk management, and leadership under pressure.